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| User Guide |
• What is NewsFutures' Prediction Market?
• How does it work?
• What's the object of this game?
• What can I win?
• What are my chances of winning?
• How can I get X$ to start investing?
• What if I lose all my X$?
• Who do I ask for help?
What is NewsFutures' Prediction Market?
NewsFutures' prediction market is a game. Similar to fantasy stock market games, this one lets players trade on news events. You predict the outcome of various real-world news events we supply. So the more you know, the more likely you are to predict correctly and win. And it's not just how much you know. You can benefit from the bad predictions of others.
Win what? NewsFutures won't make you rich, but it will give you the ability to bid for a variety of prizes using the "eXchange dollars" (X$) you earn from playing. (Note that X$s are not redeemable for cash or any prizes not included in the Winners' Store. See below for details.)
How does it work?
Here is an example: Let's suppose that you want to invest in the outcome «The GOP presidential ticket will be 2 white guys». The trading price for the corresponding "contract" is currently X$83 ("X$" is the game's play money). If the predicted outcome occurs, then each contract that you bought will yield X$100 and you will have earned X$17 per contract (100 - 83). That's a 20% return on your investment!
In general, you invest in specific outcomes by buying contracts with prices between X$1 and X$99. While the outcome is undecided, supply and demand -- yours and the other traders' - determine the appropriate price for these contracts. Then, when the outcome is finally known, the winning contracts are cashed in for X$100 each, while the losing contracts are worthless.
All transactions take place directly among traders. When you buy a contract, it is because another player has sold it to you. When you sell a contract, it is because another player has bought it from you.
And that's the truly neat feature of this game: you can resell your contracts at anytime to other players. That means you do not have to wait for the outcome to make a profit! Indeed, some players find great excitement in repeatedly buying low and selling high, turning a profit each time by astutely anticipating market movements -- that is, others' collective opinion.
Here is what an actual Trading Page looks like:
What's the object of the game?
The prediction market, like any speculative market, aggregates the individual expertise and opinions of well-informed and well-motivated traders into a single easily understood number: a stock's trading price. This number can be taken as indicating the collectively agreed-upon likelihood of a particular outcome in the real-world. Even non-participants may thus benefit from such market signals. If you want to learn more about the predictive power of such markets, here is a selection of media articles and scientific papers.
Since it involves "putting money where your mouth is" (even if it is play money), this game rewards the better informed traders while penalizing the worst. Thus, the influence of the best grows while the influence of the worst tends to vanish. The result is a sort of permanent poll of experts who predict what will happen next in the world.
We hope you will find this a most entertaining means of investing in the future. Here are all the speculation topics on the market today.
Join Us! (Membership is free!)
What can I win?
The X$ that you earn through your shrewd investements can be used to participate in auctions for great prizes. You can find out about current auctions by visiting the Winners' Store. Note that X$ are not redeemable for cash or any prizes not included in the Winners' Store.
What are my chances of winning?
Prizes are given away at auction regularly, so anyone who has accumulated enough X$, relative to others, by speculating astutely, has a chance to bid for these prizes.
There is no time limit on the game, so you can invest at your own pace on just the topics that interest you. This is a game of skill, so the best players will take away the biggest prizes.
How can I get X$ to start playing?
Each player who registers receives up to X$20,000 to play with: You'll receive X$2,000 when your account is activated. You can get several hundred more X$ every day in the Free X$ area as long as you have less than X$20,000 in your account.
What if I lose all my X$?
You can always get some more X$ to get back on your feet by visiting the Free X$ area and choosing your favorite means of earning a daily fistful of X$: One way to earn extra X$, for example, is to visit a partner's site.
Who do I ask for help?
First, take a look at our answers to the Frequently Asked Questions. Then, if you haven't found your answer, you can visit the message boards where the support staff and other experienced players will answer your questions. For a private contact, write to support@newsfutures.com.
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